I think the Western nickel miners may have to lobby for nickel to be included in the EU's carbon border levy (the CBAM), as well as other similar policies proposed by other governments in order to extract a green premium from nickel. At the moment it's not on the list of resources that the CBAM will apply to. https://carbonrisk.substack.com/p/the-illusory-green-premium
We agree, CBAMs will very likely become a lever to introduce some form of bifurcation/tariffs, but by the time nickel is added to any list — and the list enforced — it will be even more difficult for Western industry to catch up. eg Volkswagen and other European automakers already looking to Indonesia: https://www.dw.com/en/european-carmakers-look-to-indonesia-as-alternative-to-china/a-65481423
In the respect of the nickel trade, the nickel producers in Indonesia are almost all majority owned by Chinese companies and the country also does not have a free trade agreement with the US (unlike Japan, Australia, etc)
Has there been an analysis of the growing trend among many to favorite hybrid cars in place of full EVs. This drops the critical material needs by 80+ %. It may happen do to politics next year.
A lot can learn from reading this piece: supply & demand, the affects of cycles, how government invention has consequences, protectionism, tax policy, etc. However I believe the best lesson from this piece is to always bet against Malthusianism, a.k.a, shortages. It was to long ago that Indonesia nickel was considered-and still is-low tier and the environmental damage to extract it would make it untenable. But it was the application of technology that unlock the ability to extract more nickel from the ore, making Indonesia Nickle acceptable, which is when the dumping began. This should be a lesson for all the peak oil camp, technology comes along to unlock resource previously thought inferior. Indonesia tactics to corner the market should not be a surprise given the backing of Chinese investment. This is the play China runs when it wants to dominate a market, have lax environmental standards for manufacturing or processing flood the market causing prices to crash, destroy competition in the process. With Chinese owing these Nickle assets it's a backdoor way for Chain to control another choke point in the energy complex, which also means an increase in coal since coal parks have been set up to power these Nickle processing plants, thereby increasing emission. So in the West wants to cripple Indonesia-e.i Chinese-grip, it should attack coal.
Yep, plus as the West continues down in E.G.S orgy, export of coal will make their way somewhere. You can see this quite clearly as the United States continues to decrease it's coal consumption, it's exports of coal has increased, so all that has happened is carbon musical chair. As India, Netherlands, and South Korea are the largest importers of America coal, each for different trade and economic reason, which means that China can continue socking up all the coal from Indonesia and Australia.
I think the Western nickel miners may have to lobby for nickel to be included in the EU's carbon border levy (the CBAM), as well as other similar policies proposed by other governments in order to extract a green premium from nickel. At the moment it's not on the list of resources that the CBAM will apply to. https://carbonrisk.substack.com/p/the-illusory-green-premium
We agree, CBAMs will very likely become a lever to introduce some form of bifurcation/tariffs, but by the time nickel is added to any list — and the list enforced — it will be even more difficult for Western industry to catch up. eg Volkswagen and other European automakers already looking to Indonesia: https://www.dw.com/en/european-carmakers-look-to-indonesia-as-alternative-to-china/a-65481423
Indonesia is a democracy. How is it not as much part of the west as South Korea or Japan?
In the respect of the nickel trade, the nickel producers in Indonesia are almost all majority owned by Chinese companies and the country also does not have a free trade agreement with the US (unlike Japan, Australia, etc)
Has there been an analysis of the growing trend among many to favorite hybrid cars in place of full EVs. This drops the critical material needs by 80+ %. It may happen do to politics next year.
A lot can learn from reading this piece: supply & demand, the affects of cycles, how government invention has consequences, protectionism, tax policy, etc. However I believe the best lesson from this piece is to always bet against Malthusianism, a.k.a, shortages. It was to long ago that Indonesia nickel was considered-and still is-low tier and the environmental damage to extract it would make it untenable. But it was the application of technology that unlock the ability to extract more nickel from the ore, making Indonesia Nickle acceptable, which is when the dumping began. This should be a lesson for all the peak oil camp, technology comes along to unlock resource previously thought inferior. Indonesia tactics to corner the market should not be a surprise given the backing of Chinese investment. This is the play China runs when it wants to dominate a market, have lax environmental standards for manufacturing or processing flood the market causing prices to crash, destroy competition in the process. With Chinese owing these Nickle assets it's a backdoor way for Chain to control another choke point in the energy complex, which also means an increase in coal since coal parks have been set up to power these Nickle processing plants, thereby increasing emission. So in the West wants to cripple Indonesia-e.i Chinese-grip, it should attack coal.
China is aware of this risk and is responding. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/china-to-build-more-coal-mines-to-feed-surging-power-capacity
Yep, plus as the West continues down in E.G.S orgy, export of coal will make their way somewhere. You can see this quite clearly as the United States continues to decrease it's coal consumption, it's exports of coal has increased, so all that has happened is carbon musical chair. As India, Netherlands, and South Korea are the largest importers of America coal, each for different trade and economic reason, which means that China can continue socking up all the coal from Indonesia and Australia.